Covered Commodity and Power Product
RBOB Gasoline
RB=F · Front-month continuous futures · USD per gallon
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
RBOB Gasoline technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Mixed trend: the latest level is below its 20-period average, without full long-term confirmation.
RSI is 54, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 3.10. A break below 2.84 invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 3.53. A confirmed break above 3.53 supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +47.7%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -18.8%, from a high-water mark of 3.50 to 2.84.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- RBOB Gasoline front-month futures are trading at $3.1824 per gallon, reflecting a significant single-session decline of 9.79%.
- Market data indicates a broader downward trend, with the contract down 4.06% over the past week and 4.94% over the past month.
- The current price level follows a period of volatility where the contract had previously settled at $3.4699 on September 21, 2026, according to reported market data.
What changed
- The contract experienced a sharp correction of 9.78% in the latest session, reversing the gains observed earlier in the week.
- Prior to this decline, the market had shown upward momentum, with Morningstar reporting a 6.66% rise for the week ending September 18, 2026, and subsequent daily gains on September 16 and 17.
- The price has retreated from the $3.50+ range observed in mid-September to the current $3.18 level.
Why it matters
- The rapid price decline impacts downstream consumer costs and inflationary expectations for energy-related goods.
- For producers and refiners, this volatility affects crack spreads and margin projections, which are critical for operational planning.
- The shift in price dynamics alters the risk profile for market participants holding long positions, potentially triggering margin adjustments as defined by CME Group contract specifications.
Bullish factors
- The year-to-date performance remains positive at 86.61%, suggesting a strong structural trend despite recent short-term weakness.
- Historical data from mid-September showed consistent daily price increases, indicating underlying buying interest during that period.
- CME Group maintains active options and futures markets, providing liquidity that supports price discovery for market participants.
Bearish factors
- The recent 9.79% single-session drop represents a significant breakdown in short-term price support.
- The contract has posted negative returns over both the one-week (-4.06%) and one-month (-4.94%) horizons, signaling a sustained period of selling pressure.
- The retreat from the $3.50 level suggests that previous resistance levels may have capped upside potential, leading to profit-taking or liquidation.
Key catalysts
- Market participants are monitoring official EIA petroleum status and refinery reports for updates on inventories, implied demand, and utilization rates.
- Changes in crack spreads and seasonal specifications, as monitored by official energy agencies, serve as primary drivers for RBOB price action.
- CME Group futures and options settlement data provides the framework for assessing market positioning and volatility.
Key risks
- The primary risk is continued volatility in energy markets, which can lead to rapid shifts in contract value and margin requirements.
- Uncertainty regarding supply and demand balances, as reported by official energy bodies, remains a constant factor for price stability.
- The lack of specific, real-time fundamental catalysts in the current evidence set necessitates reliance on technical price action and broader energy market trends.
Upcoming reports
- Market participants continue to track the standard CME Group futures calendar for upcoming contract rollovers and expirations.
- Ongoing monitoring of EIA petroleum status reports remains the standard for assessing supply-side developments.
- Future updates to CME Group margin requirements will be published as market volatility dictates.
Latest verified updates
- CME Group provides ongoing official data regarding RBOB Gasoline futures margins, contract specifications, and settlement prices.
- Morningstar reports have tracked daily settlement prices, noting a recent high of $3.5276 on September 18, 2026.
- Official exchange data confirms the availability of options and futures liquidity, with volume and open interest metrics updated regularly.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed futures data
- CME GroupOfficialofficial futures contract and settlement context
- CFTCOfficialofficial positioning data
- EIAOfficialofficial U.S. energy inventories, supply, and demand
- OPECOfficialofficial oil-market publications
- IEAOfficialglobal energy demand and supply analysis
- LBMAOfficialprecious-metals benchmark and market data
- World Gold CouncilAnalyst Opiniongold demand, flows, and market structure
- USGSOfficialofficial mine supply and minerals data
- ICEOfficialofficial TTF gas and API2 coal contract specifications
- EEXOfficialofficial German and European power contract information
- PJM Data MinerOfficialofficial PJM load, LMP, constraint, and outage data
- ERCOTOfficialofficial ERCOT load, price, reserve, and generation data
- ENTSO-EOfficialofficial European load, generation, and cross-border power data
- GIE AGSIOfficialofficial European gas-storage observations
- World Nuclear AssociationReportednuclear fuel-cycle and uranium supply context
- Reuters CommoditiesReportedprofessional commodity-market reporting
- S&P Global Commodity InsightsAnalyst Opinionprofessional supply, demand, and price opinion
- ING THINK CommoditiesAnalyst Opinionprofessional commodity strategy opinion
- Public commodity discussionSocial Signalunverified commodity sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
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