The Hedge Book logo The Hedge Book Read smarter. Invest better.

← Back to Commodities

Covered Commodity and Power Product

Heating Oil (ULSD)

HO=F · Front-month continuous futures · USD per gallon

Current futures price$4.72
Current price$4.72
Daily return-3.5%
Weekly return-10.4%
Monthly return+4.9%
YTD return+122.4%
Contract monthNov 26
Contract expirationUnavailable
Rollover statusProvider-managed front-month continuous series; exact rollover methodology not supplied
Contract seriesFront-month continuous futures
RegionUnited States
Price-feed statusDelayed market data enabled
UnitsUSD per gallon
CurrencyUSD
ProviderYahoo Finance delayed futures data
Timestamp

Historical chart

Heating Oil (ULSD) historical futures price 5.464.543.622.701.782021-09-222022-07-252023-05-232024-03-212025-01-222025-11-192026-09-22 Date Futures price
2021-09-22 to 2026-09-22 · Range 1.97 to 5.26

AI-Assisted Chart Analysis

Heating Oil (ULSD) technical analysis

Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.

Technical only
Trend

Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.

Momentum

RSI is 51, a neutral reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.

Support scenario

The first technical watch zone is 4.24. A break below 3.18 invalidates the near-term support setup.

Resistance scenario

The first resistance/watch zone is 5.26. A confirmed break above 5.26 supports continuation.

Risk

Annualized realized volatility is +44.9%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -61.6%, from a high-water mark of 5.14 to 1.97.

Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.

Current signal

  • The front-month Heating Oil (ULSD) futures contract is trading at 4.7076 USD per gallon, reflecting a significant pullback from recent calendar-year highs.
  • Available verified data indicates a high-volatility environment, with the contract experiencing a single-session decline of 6.92% and a one-week decline of 5.12%.
  • Evidence limitations prevent a definitive assessment of fundamental drivers, as current observations are restricted to price action and reported sentiment rather than official EIA inventory or supply-demand balance sheets.

What changed

  • Heating Oil futures have retreated sharply, erasing recent gains that had pushed the contract to calendar-year highs of 5.2968.
  • The contract has shifted from a momentum-driven breakout phase, characterized by social reports of 'escape velocity' and technical targets above 5.30, to a corrective phase with a 6.92% daily drop.
  • Year-to-date performance remains elevated at 121.99%, maintaining a substantial premium over historical baselines despite the recent week-over-week contraction.

Why it matters

  • The rapid price reversal impacts downstream energy costs for consumers and industrial users, potentially signaling a cooling in the aggressive bullish sentiment observed earlier in the week.
  • For investors, the divergence between the 121.99% YTD gain and the recent 6.92% single-session decline highlights heightened sensitivity to technical exhaustion and profit-taking.
  • The volatility in ULSD prices serves as a proxy for broader distillate market tightness, though the lack of current EIA inventory data limits the ability to confirm if this move is driven by supply-side fundamentals or speculative positioning.

Bullish factors

  • The contract maintains a strong year-to-date trend, up 121.99%, suggesting that the long-term structural uptrend remains intact despite short-term volatility.
  • Previous market commentary highlighted technical momentum and the clearing of upside targets, which may attract dip-buyers if the contract stabilizes above key support levels.
  • Historical context provided by reported sources suggests the market has demonstrated the capacity to reach and exceed prior calendar-year highs.

Bearish factors

  • The 6.92% single-session decline indicates a breakdown in the immediate bullish momentum, potentially triggering stop-loss orders from recent long positions.
  • Reported sentiment had previously noted an 'overbought' RSI condition, which often precedes corrective price action in commodity futures.
  • The failure to sustain prices above the 5.20-5.30 range suggests resistance at those levels, which may dampen near-term bullish conviction.

Key catalysts

  • Future EIA petroleum status reports will be critical to determine if the price action reflects changes in refinery utilization or distillate stock levels.
  • Shifts in broader energy market sentiment, particularly regarding global distillate demand, will influence the sustainability of the current pullback.
  • Technical support levels, which were previously identified as upside targets, will now serve as critical monitoring points for potential stabilization.

Key risks

  • The primary risk is a continuation of the current corrective trend, which could accelerate if technical support levels fail to hold.
  • The absence of real-time inventory and supply-demand data creates a risk of 'blind' trading, where price moves may be disconnected from underlying physical market realities.
  • Volatility risk remains elevated, as evidenced by the sharp contrast between the recent calendar-year highs and the current daily percentage decline.

Upcoming reports

  • Monitoring of official EIA petroleum status reports is required to provide fundamental context for the recent price volatility.
  • Observation of CFTC Commitment of Traders reports is necessary to assess whether the recent price drop coincides with a reduction in net-long speculative positioning.
  • Continued tracking of front-month contract settlement data is required to identify if the market establishes a new trading range following the recent decline.

Latest verified updates

  • As of September 16, 2026, Heating Oil futures were reported to have reached calendar-year highs of 5.2968 before the subsequent decline.
  • Reported market commentary from September 15, 2026, identified technical upside targets at 5.3125, which have not been met following the recent price reversal.
  • The current price of 4.7076 USD per gallon represents a significant deviation from the 5.2311 level observed in recent reporting.

Sources

Yahoo Finance delayed futures data

Last updated: