Covered Commodity and Power Product
US Midwest HRC Steel
HRC=F · Front-month continuous futures · USD per short ton
Current futures price$1,285.00
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US Midwest HRC Steel technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 96, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 1,196.00. A break below 1,152.00 invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 1,285.00. A confirmed break above 1,285.00 supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +13.1%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -2.8%, from a high-water mark of 823.00 to 800.00.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- US Midwest HRC Steel front-month continuous futures are currently priced at 1337.0 USD per short ton, reflecting a significant single-session appreciation.
- The current price observation is derived from delayed futures data, with the evidence window limited to the last seven days of market activity.
- There is no available evidence regarding current mill inventory levels, specific supply-side disruptions, or downstream industrial demand metrics to contextualize this price level beyond the reported market data.
What changed
- The contract price increased by 100.0 USD per short ton, representing an 8.08% gain in the latest session.
- Short-term momentum is positive, with the asset recording an 8.35% increase over the past week.
- The one-month performance shows a cumulative gain of 11.98%, while year-to-date performance stands at 42.99%.
Why it matters
- The sharp price appreciation impacts input costs for domestic manufacturers reliant on flat-rolled steel, potentially pressuring margins for automotive and construction sectors.
- As a benchmark for US industrial metal pricing, this move signals tightening market conditions or increased procurement activity, though the lack of specific supply-chain data limits causal attribution.
- The significant year-to-date gain suggests a sustained trend in steel pricing that may influence broader producer price index (PPI) expectations for industrial commodities.
Bullish factors
- The consistent positive performance across one-week, one-month, and year-to-date timeframes indicates strong upward price momentum.
- The double-digit percentage gain over the last month suggests that market participants are pricing in either supply constraints or robust demand expectations.
Bearish factors
- The absence of fundamental supply or demand data means the current price move lacks confirmation from physical market indicators.
- Rapid price appreciation of this magnitude can sometimes precede volatility or corrections if the move is driven by speculative positioning rather than underlying industrial consumption.
Key catalysts
- Market participants are monitoring CME Group contract settlement data for further confirmation of volume and open interest trends.
- Future price direction remains contingent on forthcoming industrial demand reports and potential shifts in domestic mill production capacity.
Key risks
- The reliance on delayed futures data creates a lag in assessing real-time market reactions to potential trade policy or macroeconomic shifts.
- Without verified data on mill inventories or import levels, there is a risk of misinterpreting price volatility as a fundamental shift in supply-demand balance.
Upcoming reports
- Market participants continue to monitor official CME Group data for ongoing contract settlement and rollover activity.
- Analysts are awaiting updated industrial production and manufacturing data to correlate with the observed steel price trend.
Latest verified updates
- CME Group provides the official contract structure and settlement context for US Midwest HRC Steel futures.
- Current price observations are sourced from reported delayed futures data, with no additional fundamental supply or demand reports available in the current evidence set.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed futures data
- CME GroupOfficialofficial futures contract and settlement context
- CFTCOfficialofficial positioning data
- EIAOfficialofficial U.S. energy inventories, supply, and demand
- OPECOfficialofficial oil-market publications
- IEAOfficialglobal energy demand and supply analysis
- LBMAOfficialprecious-metals benchmark and market data
- World Gold CouncilAnalyst Opiniongold demand, flows, and market structure
- USGSOfficialofficial mine supply and minerals data
- ICEOfficialofficial TTF gas and API2 coal contract specifications
- EEXOfficialofficial German and European power contract information
- PJM Data MinerOfficialofficial PJM load, LMP, constraint, and outage data
- ERCOTOfficialofficial ERCOT load, price, reserve, and generation data
- ENTSO-EOfficialofficial European load, generation, and cross-border power data
- GIE AGSIOfficialofficial European gas-storage observations
- World Nuclear AssociationReportednuclear fuel-cycle and uranium supply context
- Reuters CommoditiesReportedprofessional commodity-market reporting
- S&P Global Commodity InsightsAnalyst Opinionprofessional supply, demand, and price opinion
- ING THINK CommoditiesAnalyst Opinionprofessional commodity strategy opinion
- Public commodity discussionSocial Signalunverified commodity sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
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