The Hedge Book logo The Hedge Book Read smarter. Invest better.

← Back to Commodities

Covered Commodity and Power Product

PJM Western Hub Power

J4 · PJM Western Hub day-ahead peak calendar-month futures · USD per MWh

Current futures price$74.90
Current price$74.90
Daily return+3.5%
Weekly returnN/A
Monthly returnN/A
YTD returnN/A
Contract monthSep 2026
Contract expirationUnavailable
Rollover statusUnavailable
Contract seriesPJM Western Hub day-ahead peak calendar-month futures
RegionUnited States
Price-feed statusDelayed market data enabled
UnitsUSD per MWh
CurrencyUSD
ProviderICAP broker forward marks
Timestamp

Current signal

  • Sep 2026 PJM Western Hub peak futures are priced at $74.90/MWh, according to ICAP broker forward marks.
  • This forward price represents a premium over the current PJM Data Miner official day-ahead average LMP of $54.97/MWh observed on August 20, 2026.
  • The market signal reflects a 3.45% increase in the forward contract value over the recent observation window.

What changed

  • The Sep 2026 contract moved higher by $2.50/MWh, reflecting a 3.45% increase in the forward mark.
  • This shift occurs against a backdrop of PJM Western Hub day-ahead congestion averaging $5.10/MWh and loss components averaging $0.88/MWh as of August 20, 2026.
  • The forward curve is pricing in a higher cost of power for the September 2026 delivery period compared to the immediate day-ahead market observations.

Why it matters

  • The premium of the forward contract over current day-ahead LMP suggests market participants are pricing in risk premiums or expected supply-demand tightness for the September 2026 delivery month.
  • For consumers and industrial entities, this forward pricing indicates higher expected hedging costs for peak power delivery in the PJM region.
  • The divergence between current day-ahead averages and forward marks highlights the market's anticipation of seasonal volatility or structural constraints not fully reflected in current spot-adjacent data.

Bullish factors

  • The forward contract is trading at a significant premium to current day-ahead LMP averages, indicating market sentiment favors higher future power costs.
  • PJM Data Miner reports a Western Hub peak load forecast of 30,112 MW, which provides a baseline for potential demand-side pressure on future pricing.
  • Generation outage forecasts for the region, with 'other peak' outages at 26,106 MW, suggest potential supply constraints that could support higher forward prices.

Bearish factors

  • Current day-ahead LMP averages at $54.97/MWh remain well below the $74.90/MWh forward mark, suggesting that current spot conditions do not fully support the forward premium.
  • The lack of real-time LMP data in the current PJM Data Miner report limits the ability to confirm if real-time volatility is currently driving the forward curve higher.
  • The forward price is a broker-reported mark rather than an exchange-settled price, which may introduce liquidity or reporting variances compared to cleared contracts.

Key catalysts

  • Future PJM Data Miner reports on generation outages will be critical to determining if the 26,106 MW of 'other peak' outages materialize or are mitigated.
  • Changes in the PJM Western Hub load forecast, currently at 30,112 MW for the next period, will serve as a primary driver for forward price adjustments.
  • Updates to day-ahead congestion and loss components will indicate whether transmission constraints are intensifying or easing in the Western Hub.

Key risks

  • The primary risk is a divergence between the ICAP broker forward marks and actual exchange-cleared settlement prices for the September 2026 contract.
  • Unexpected shifts in regional generation availability could cause the forward curve to reprice rapidly, given the current outage forecast levels.
  • The reliance on broker-reported data for the forward mark introduces potential discrepancies compared to official exchange-settled futures.

Upcoming reports

  • Continued monitoring of PJM Data Miner reports is required to track the evolution of the 30,112 MW peak load forecast.
  • Future updates to the PJM generation outage schedule will be monitored to assess the impact on the Western Hub supply stack.
  • Market participants will continue to evaluate the spread between the $54.97/MWh day-ahead LMP and the $74.90/MWh forward contract as the delivery month approaches.

Latest verified updates

  • ICAP broker forward marks indicate the Sep 2026 PJM Western Hub contract is priced at $74.90/MWh as of the latest observation.
  • PJM Data Miner official data for August 20, 2026, reports a Western Hub day-ahead LMP average of $54.97/MWh.
  • Official PJM load forecasting data indicates a next-period peak load of 30,112 MW for the Western Hub.

Sources

ICAP broker forward marks

Last updated: