Covered Treasury Rate
US 5-Year Treasury Note
Treasury Note · 5 years
Current yield4.834%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^FVX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 5-Year Treasury Note technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 78, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 4.351%. A break below 4.130% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 4.859%. A confirmed break above 4.859% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +22.6%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -31.4%, from a high-water mark of 4.961% to 3.405%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 5-Year Treasury Note yield is currently observed at 4.834% as of September 21, 2026.
- Market data indicates a daily yield compression of 2.20 basis points, contrasting with a broader upward trend over the last week.
- Current yield levels reflect a significant year-to-date increase of 111.20 basis points, indicating a sustained shift in the intermediate-term rate environment.
What changed
- The 5-Year yield has retreated by 2.20 basis points on a daily basis, providing a minor respite from recent upward pressure.
- Over the trailing seven-day period, the yield has risen by 4.40 basis points, maintaining a positive momentum bias.
- The monthly observation shows a substantial yield expansion of 41.00 basis points, highlighting a rapid repricing of intermediate duration risk over the last 30 days.
Why it matters
- The 111.20 basis point year-to-date increase in the 5-Year yield suggests a market that is aggressively pricing in higher terminal rates or a longer duration of restrictive monetary policy.
- Intermediate yields serve as a critical benchmark for corporate borrowing costs and consumer credit, meaning the recent 41.00 basis point monthly rise likely increases debt-servicing burdens for both sectors.
- As a key point on the yield curve, the 5-Year note's performance relative to the 2-Year and 10-Year notes is essential for monitoring recession signals and duration risk premiums.
Bullish rate drivers
- A daily decline of 2.20 basis points suggests potential short-term exhaustion in the recent sell-off, providing a temporary floor for bond prices.
- If market participants perceive the 4.834% yield level as attractive relative to inflation expectations, demand for intermediate duration may stabilize.
- Any official data releases indicating a cooling in economic growth or employment could catalyze a reversal in the current upward yield trend.
Bearish rate drivers
- The 41.00 basis point monthly yield expansion indicates strong momentum toward higher rates, which continues to pressure bond prices lower.
- The persistent year-to-date rise of 111.20 basis points reflects a structural shift in the interest rate environment that may not be easily reversed without significant policy intervention.
- Continued weekly yield increases of 4.40 basis points suggest that the market remains biased toward selling intermediate-term debt.
Key catalysts
- Future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and communications remain the primary drivers for intermediate-term yield direction.
- Upcoming official US Treasury auctions and issuance schedules will dictate supply-demand dynamics for the 5-Year note.
- Official economic releases concerning inflation, employment, and growth will serve as the primary inputs for market repricing of the Fed's path.
Key risks
- Unexpected volatility in the Treasury market could lead to rapid yield spikes if liquidity conditions tighten.
- Divergence between market-implied policy probabilities and actual Federal Reserve actions poses a risk of sudden repricing in the 5-Year sector.
- Fiscal policy developments that increase Treasury issuance requirements could exert upward pressure on yields regardless of monetary policy stance.
Upcoming events
- Monitoring of Federal Reserve policy communications for shifts in the 'higher for longer' narrative.
- Tracking of scheduled US Treasury auctions to assess investor appetite for intermediate-term debt.
- Observation of official inflation and employment data releases to gauge the trajectory of the economic cycle.
Latest verified updates
- The 5-Year Treasury yield was last updated on September 21, 2026, at 4.834%.
- Data is sourced from Yahoo Finance delayed market data, which serves as a reported fallback for yield observations.
- No specific Federal Reserve policy decisions or Treasury auction results have been integrated into this update beyond the current yield observation.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-09-21