Covered Treasury Rate
US 13-Week Treasury Bill
Treasury Bill · 13 weeks
Current yield3.982%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^IRX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 13-Week Treasury Bill technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 89, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 3.678%. A break below 3.658% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 3.982%. A confirmed break above 3.982% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +86.2%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -61.5%, from a high-water mark of 0.065% to 0.025%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 13-Week Treasury Bill yield is currently observed at 3.982% as of September 21, 2026.
- Market pricing reflects a modest daily increase of 0.4 basis points, indicating stable short-term liquidity conditions.
- The yield remains within a tight range, reflecting the market's current assessment of near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations.
What changed
- The 13-week yield has risen by 4.7 basis points over the past week, continuing a broader upward trend.
- On a monthly basis, the yield has expanded by 27.2 basis points, signaling a shift in short-term interest rate pricing.
- Year-to-date, the instrument has seen a cumulative increase of 43.5 basis points, reflecting evolving macroeconomic conditions throughout 2026.
Why it matters
- As a primary benchmark for short-term risk-free rates, the 13-week T-Bill yield directly influences the cost of capital for cash-equivalent investments and money market funds.
- Rising yields at the short end of the curve can increase the opportunity cost for holding cash, potentially impacting liquidity allocations in broader risk assets.
- The upward movement in short-term rates suggests market participants are adjusting their expectations for the path of the Federal Funds Rate or liquidity supply.
Bullish rate drivers
- Upward pressure on yields is supported by the 27.2 basis point monthly increase, suggesting a repricing of higher-for-longer rate expectations.
- The consistent weekly rise of 4.7 basis points indicates sustained demand for higher yields on short-duration government paper.
Bearish rate drivers
- The relatively small daily change of 0.4 basis points suggests that the upward momentum may be consolidating rather than accelerating.
- Yield levels remain sensitive to any shifts in Federal Reserve policy communications, which could introduce volatility if future guidance deviates from current market pricing.
Key catalysts
- Upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions and official communications remain the primary drivers for short-term rate expectations.
- Scheduled US Treasury auctions and issuance volumes will influence the supply-demand dynamics for 13-week bills.
- Official releases regarding inflation, employment, and economic growth data will serve as critical inputs for adjusting rate forecasts.
Key risks
- Unexpected shifts in Federal Reserve policy stance could lead to rapid repricing of the short end of the yield curve.
- Changes in Treasury issuance patterns or liquidity conditions in the repo market could impact bill yields independently of broader monetary policy.
- Macroeconomic data surprises that deviate from consensus expectations may trigger volatility in short-term interest rate instruments.
Upcoming events
- Market participants are monitoring the Federal Reserve's scheduled policy meetings for updates on the interest rate trajectory.
- The US Treasury continues its regular auction schedule, which provides ongoing data on issuance and demand for short-term debt.
- Official economic data releases, including inflation and employment reports, are monitored for their potential to alter the interest rate outlook.
Latest verified updates
- The US 13-Week Treasury Bill yield was last recorded at 3.982% on September 21, 2026, per reported market data.
- The instrument has demonstrated a consistent upward trajectory over the past month, with a cumulative increase of 27.2 basis points.
- Current observations are based on reported market data; official Treasury and Federal Reserve data sources remain the primary framework for validating these rate movements.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-09-21