Covered Treasury Rate
US 10-Year Treasury Note
Treasury Note · 10 years
Current yield4.963%
Classification: Treasury yield
Provider: Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
Symbol: ^TNX
Historical chart
AI-Assisted Chart Analysis
US 10-Year Treasury Note technical analysis
Calculated from verified chart history for the selected tenor; no news or fundamental assumptions are used.
Constructive uptrend: the latest level is above the 50-period average and the 50-period average is above the 200-period average.
RSI is 71, a extended reading. Above 70 can signal extension; below 30 can signal exhaustion.
The first technical watch zone is 4.639%. A break below 4.372% invalidates the near-term support setup.
The first resistance/watch zone is 5.006%. A confirmed break above 5.006% supports continuation.
Annualized realized volatility is +14.4%. Maximum lookback drawdown is -7.8%, from a high-water mark of 4.295% to 3.962%.
Potential levels are conditional chart scenarios, not personalized advice or instructions to buy or sell.
Current signal
- The US 10-Year Treasury yield is currently observed at 4.963% as of September 21, 2026.
- Market data indicates a daily decline of 3.5 basis points, contrasting with a broader monthly trend of rising yields.
- The current yield reflects a year-to-date increase of 80.0 basis points, indicating a sustained upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs throughout the year.
What changed
- The 10-Year yield retreated by 3.5 basis points in the latest session, interrupting a recent period of relative stability.
- Despite the daily decline, the yield remains elevated on a monthly basis, having risen 22.5 basis points over the last 30 days.
- Weekly volatility remains minimal, with a marginal net change of 0.2 basis points, suggesting consolidation near the 5% threshold.
Why it matters
- The sustained 80 basis point rise year-to-date signals tightening financial conditions, which typically increases the cost of capital for corporate borrowers and consumers.
- Elevated 10-Year yields serve as a benchmark for mortgage rates and other long-term debt, directly impacting housing market affordability and business investment plans.
- The divergence between the daily pullback and the significant monthly rise suggests investors are balancing short-term profit-taking against a longer-term trend of higher-for-longer rate expectations.
Bullish rate drivers
- A daily decline of 3.5 basis points provides temporary relief for bond prices, potentially attracting buyers looking to capitalize on recent yield peaks.
- The marginal weekly change of 0.2 basis points indicates that the recent upward momentum may be encountering resistance at current levels.
Bearish rate drivers
- The 22.5 basis point increase over the last month confirms a persistent trend of selling pressure in the long end of the curve.
- A year-to-date rise of 80 basis points demonstrates a strong, established trend of yield expansion that continues to weigh on fixed-income valuations.
Key catalysts
- Future yield direction will be contingent upon upcoming official Federal Reserve policy communications and interest rate decisions.
- Market participants are monitoring official U.S. Treasury auction results and issuance schedules for signals on supply-demand dynamics.
- Official economic releases regarding inflation, employment, and growth metrics remain the primary drivers for adjusting long-term rate expectations.
Key risks
- The primary risk is a continuation of the monthly trend, which could push yields further above the 5% level if economic data surprises to the upside.
- Market liquidity and volatility around key economic data releases could exacerbate price swings, as indicated by the reliance on reported market data for current pricing.
Upcoming events
- Monitoring of Federal Reserve policy meetings and official communications is required to assess shifts in the monetary policy outlook.
- Scheduled U.S. Treasury auctions will be tracked to evaluate investor appetite for long-term government debt.
- Official releases of inflation and employment data are pending and will serve as critical inputs for re-evaluating the current yield trajectory.
Latest verified updates
- The 10-Year Treasury yield was last updated on September 21, 2026, at 4.963%.
- Data provenance is attributed to Yahoo Finance delayed market data, serving as a reported fallback for real-time yield observation.
Sources
Yahoo Finance delayed market data (fallback)
- U.S. TreasuryOfficialofficial yields, auctions, and issuance
- Federal ReserveOfficialofficial policy decisions and communications
- FREDOfficialofficial economic and rate time series
- New York FedOfficialSOFR and money-market reference rates
- CME FedWatchAnalyst Opinionmarket-implied policy probabilities
- FINRA TRACEOfficialfixed-income transaction context
- Reuters RatesReportedprofessional rates and bond reporting
- Trading EconomicsReportedmarket yield observation fallback
- PIMCOAnalyst Opinionprofessional duration and macro opinion
- BlackRockAnalyst Opinionprofessional macro and fixed-income opinion
- Public market discussionSocial Signalunverified rates sentiment and claims requiring confirmation
Last updated: 2026-09-21